General Elections past and present have had little effect on the UK’s commercial property market, economists at property advisory firm Colliers have claimed, arguing that investors are more pre-occupied with the timing of the first UK interest rate hike.
Colliers’ economist and research director Walter Boettcher said a study of the UK’s 2001, 2005 and 2010 elections shows that investment transaction volumes before, during, and after never moved beyond the bounds of normal volatility seen quarter-on-quarter.
In 2001, for example, total investment rose by 17 per cent in the preceding quarter, fell by 19 per cent during the election quarter, and declined again by 13 per cent in the three months after the polls. Normal volatility accounts for 28 per cent per quarter.
“In this cycle, most property professionals seem less focused on the election and more focused on interest rates and, especially, the timing of the first interest rate hike by a central bank,” Boettcher said.